There was an 80% decrease in precipitation in the western Himalayan region in December, and January has been unusually dry. The lack of active western disturbances during the winter months is the reason given by the India Meteorological Department for this. Northwest India typically receives unusually high levels of rainfall as a result of these Mediterranean-originating storms. The absence of significant western disturbances is another reason for the region's ongoing layer of fog over the plains since December 25, according to the IMD.
The lack of precipitation is predicted to have an effect on the Himalayan region's freshwater availability, which will impair agricultural and horticultural output. Concern has been voiced by Sonam Lotus, the head of the meteorological center in Leh, Ladakh, regarding the exceptionally warm temperatures in Ladakh and Kashmir during the height of winter, which are leading crops to bloom early.
The region's main supply of freshwater prior to the southwest monsoon is the snowfall that occurs during the Chillai Kalan period, which runs from December 21 to January 29. River and stream levels have decreased as a result of the protracted dry period. According to IMD scientists RK Jenamani, Naresh Kumar, and Krishna Mishra, the northern plains have seen maximum temperatures that are 5-8 degrees Celsius below average since December 29. One important aspect has been the lack of strong western disturbances; extremely dense fog has been lingering over northwest India since December 25, peaking on January 14.
Experts caution about possible effects on the Himalayan region's freshwater resources. They are concerned about the damage that the prolonged dry season poses to agricultural and horticultural productivity. Ladakh and Kashmir have abnormally warm temperatures for peak winter, which causes early crop flowering. Maximum temperatures over the northern plains since December 29 have been 5-8 degrees Celsius below average, according to a report by IMD experts.
Three key factors—the absence of active western disturbances, the prevailing El Nino conditions, and a strong jet stream—are blamed by scientists for the extreme weather. Weather patterns are influenced by El-Nino, which is characterized by abnormal heat in the central Pacific Ocean. The last five days have seen strong jet streams over north India, which has caused cold air to subside and intensify cold wave/cold day conditions. Over the next five days, it is anticipated that these conditions will persist, making the difficulties caused by the ongoing weather anomalies even more severe.
