Introduction:
The longstanding diplomatic ties between Canada and India have taken a dramatic downturn in recent years, culminating in a severe crisis that threatens to strain their relationship even further. Historically characterized by trade and a significant Indian diaspora in Canada, the partnership between these two nations seemed to be in good standing. However, a series of events and escalating tensions have brought this relationship to its lowest point in years.
Historical Context:
Canada boasts the world's largest Sikh population outside India, numbering nearly 770,000 people, which constitutes 2.1% of the country's population. Tensions between Indian and Canadian officials began simmering in 2015 when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau came to power and appointed four Sikh ministers to his cabinet. Issues arose over Sikh Canadians expressing support for the Khalistan movement, advocating for a separate Sikh homeland in India. Trudeau's 2018 visit to India further strained relations when his delegation met Jaspal Atwal, a Sikh man convicted of attempting to murder an Indian cabinet minister, prompting Canada to rescind Atwal's invitation to an official reception.
Changing Dynamics:
Despite these challenges, India and Canada had been working to strengthen their relationship, particularly in response to shared concerns about China. Canada saw India as a crucial partner under its Indo-Pacific strategy, hoping to diversify its economy. As recently as May, both countries were optimistic about signing a trade agreement covering areas such as automobiles, agriculture, and information technology.
Recent Escalation:
The deterioration in India-Canada relations escalated in recent months. In June, India's Minister of External Affairs, S. Jaishankar, expressed concerns over Canada's accommodation of Sikh separatists, noting that it was detrimental to the bilateral relationship. Just ten days after Jaishankar's warning, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a prominent Sikh Canadian leader, was assassinated at a Sikh temple in Vancouver. Canada's decision to pause trade negotiations with India in September and subsequent cancellation of a trade mission further underscored the growing tension.
The Trudeau Accusations:
The relationship between the two countries reached its nadir when Prime Minister Trudeau accused New Delhi of involvement in Nijjar's assassination. Trudeau claimed that Ottawa was pursuing "credible allegations" from Canadian intelligence, leading to the expulsion of a senior Indian diplomat. In retaliation, India issued a statement denying any involvement in Nijjar's death and expelled an unnamed senior Canadian diplomat.
Global Implications:
The strained relations between Canada and India hold broader implications. Canada has previously experienced diplomatic conflicts with rising powers like China and Saudi Arabia, and the current situation with India further challenges its diplomatic standing. The United States, while expressing concern over the Canadian allegations, faces a delicate balancing act as it seeks to maintain its strategic relationship with India in countering China through its Indo-Pacific strategy.
Conclusion:
The deepening crisis in Canada-India relations is a cause for concern, given the historical significance of their partnership and the potential consequences for global geopolitics. Both countries face difficult choices in how they manage this crisis, with neither side willing to back down easily. Rebuilding trust and returning to the old normal will be a challenging endeavor, and the world watches closely as the knives are out in this diplomatic showdown.
