Iran has carried out airstrikes on Pakistani territory, apparently targeting a group of Sunni militants, in the latest sign of a wave of violence in the Middle East and beyond.
Pakistan's foreign ministry said two children were killed and three others injured in an "illegal" airstrike, and summoned Tehran's high consul in Islamabad to condemn "indiscriminate violations of its airspace." The ministry did not give any further details of the attack .There have been missile and drone attacks in the border province of Balochistan.
Iran reported attacks on bases of the Sunni militant group Jaish al-Adl, but details of the attack quickly disappeared from Iranian media Iran and Pakistan have long maintained close ties, mainly due to Balochi separatism and activities of other militant groups along the border therefore There is but this would significantly increase the territory of its nuclear-armed neighbour.
The attacks in Pakistan came less than a day after Iranian missile attacks in Syria and Iraq, a series of retaliatory strikes against Tehran’s enemies following the January 3 double bombing of Kerman, which the Iranians will over 80 -The Islamic State (IS) claimed responsibility for the deadly attack. What is unclear is whether Tehran believes Jaish al-Adl is also involved, or whether it was simply hitting the enemy in response to domestic calls for retaliation.
As for the Kerman attack, the Iranian retaliatory attack does not appear to be directly related to the war in Gaza, but it comes at a time when that conflict is already spreading instability across the region . . . .
Houthi rebels allied with Palestinians in Gaza attacked a Red Sea fleet, prompting the United States and its allies to attack Houthi positions in Yemen for the first time
The United States on Tuesday launched a new offensive against the Houthis, including a third attack on the Iran-backed group in recent days, firing anti-ship missiles In a final strike launched against Red Sea shipping, struck a Greek-owned missile carrier off the coast of Yemen on Tuesday. The Zografia, still seaworthy, was sailing from Vietnam to Israel, Greek officials said. No injuries were reported.
U.S. the Biden administration is expected to announce plans Wednesday to relist the Houthis as a designated global terrorist group, according to media reports.
In an effort to facilitate humanitarian aid to Yemen, the United States in February 2021 removed the Houthis from the list of specifically designated foreign terrorist organizations and global terrorists.
The Iranian-backed Hezbollah group in Lebanon has also frequently fired rockets into northern Israel since the start of the Gaza war, which began when Hamas attacked Israel, and the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have retaliated, on occasion airstrikes in southern Lebanon that .
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdullahian met with Pakistani caretaker prime minister Anwar-ul-Haq Kakar on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Tuesday, but it was unclear what was discussed at the meeting.
Baloch nationalists have been fighting relatively moderate insurgencies in Balochistan for more than two decades, which have gained momentum in the creation of independence. Iran has long suspected Pakistan of harboring rebels and fomenting instability along Iran’s southeastern border, possibly in alliance with Tehran’s arch-rival Saudi Arabia.
Baluch militants have also crossed over from Iran to carry out attacks inside Pakistan.
Iran and Saudi Arabia reached a Chinese-brokered settlement in March last year, easing tensions. But in April 2023, four Pakistani soldiers were killed in one such attack.
On Monday, Iran fired a missile targeting an IS facility in northern Syria, and Iraq, which it identified as an “Israeli intelligence headquarters” close to the US. the embassy in a part of the capital Erbil, “terrorist-. groups” were targeted -Autonomous Kurdistan Region.
On Monday, Iraq called the attack, which killed dozens of civilians, a “clear violation” of Iraqi sovereignty, recalled its ambassador from Tehran and threatened to refer Iran to the United Nations Security Council.
Reasons for Caution:
Limited Scope: The airstrikes were targeted and did not involve major military installations or Pakistani forces. This suggests a desire to send a message rather than initiate full-scale war.
Domestic Pressures: Both countries face internal political pressures to assert themselves, but their economies and public sentiments are unlikely to readily embrace a protracted conflict.
Global Interdependence: The interconnectedness of the global economy, coupled with the horrors of past major wars, creates a strong disincentive for any major power to actively support or participate in a wider conflict.
Future Possibilities:
While the immediate risk of a full-blown war appears low, the situation remains highly unstable. The following scenarios are possible:
Limited Retaliation: Pakistan could engage in targeted strikes against Iranian border positions or militants operating within their territory.
Diplomatic Standoff: Prolonged diplomatic tensions and accusations could create a climate of mistrust and hinder cooperation on other regional issues.
De-escalation and Dialogue: Hopefully, international pressure and back-channel diplomacy could prevail, leading to a de-escalation and eventually constructive dialogue to address the underlying issues.
